Our AI Predictions for 2024

Our Director and Chief Nostradamus Paul Atherton shared some predictions for AI for Education for 2024.

News • December 2023

2023 was the year of the chat – 2024 will be the year of content

This year has been quite the ride in terms of AI, with ChatGPT reaching 100m monthly users by February, just two months after launching – and 100m weekly users by November. By November, OpenAI shared that two million developers were using their API’s, including nearly all Fortune 500 companies. In richer countries, we are seeing it integrated into more and more of our daily lives – often without us noticing – oh, hello Otter.ai in our zoom call.

For many, it’s hard to know what to make of all this – the potential is there, but anyone that’s been on a call with AI transcripts knows that the technology still has issues. ‘Hallucinations’ is Dictionary.com word of the year, as more people experiment with ChatGPT models and find them to be slightly off sometimes (don’t even get us started on learning styles). We are also hearing more calls from UNESCO and others for regulations, and seeing emerging policy for AI in education in higher income countries such as England.

Across LMIC’s, we’ve had the privilege of talking to many innovators who are looking to harness AI for education – and many people who just want us to explain to them simply what is happening, and what they need to know.

It’s such early days in this technology that we need to figure out what it all means together – we’re in the ideas space, not the scaling. It’s even more complicated by the fact that Microsoft/OpenAI, Minstral, Anthropic and Google keep revealing things every few months which make even last month obsolete, meaning we need to be cautious how we spend limited resources.

So, the best we can do is make informed guesses at ‘what next’ and think carefully on the areas where AI can help the most. We started this with the discussion on use cases which will continue in earnest in the new year.

So where do I see AI-for-Education going next year? Here’s my top five predictions.

1. The first wave of innovation will be in education system support rather than adaptive learning

2023 was about chat – 2024 will be about content. Only by 2025 or 2026 will we see large scale adaptive learning in low-resource settings. As an aside, I think It’ll be the digitalisation of content and move to ‘thinking for digital as default’ which will really change the game in the first wave.

2. We will need more ways of ensuring quality content

As the cost of creating content becomes so low, we will need more ways of ensuring quality content as the week long workshops won’t cut it. The sheer amount of content that will be produced in 2024 will be frightening.

3. Deepfakes will become more prevalent

At least one exam season will be disrupted due to ChatGPT, and deepfakes will become more and more prevalent – making education even more important.

4. Google will have the ‘best’ model by year end 2025

(I’m sticking my neck out here, but..) Google will have the ‘best’ model by year end 2025. I see the challenges in generative AI now about us learning how to get the models to pay ‘attention’ to certain parts of their training sets, or appending new information to them. This takes us back into the world of search, which google is just the best at.

5. AI will start to become truly multi-modal

And this will really unlock use cases for education. The challenge here is training data – we have textbooks, and guides, but we have no way of training on what good teaching looks like – what is sounds like – what it looks like. In 2024 we’ll begin to think seriously about this.

Article by Dr Paul Atherton, Fab Inc.


Dr Paul Atherton


CEO & Founder

Fab Inc. & AI-for-Education.org

Explore the Ideas for How AI Can Help With Education

AI has the potential to transform approaches in education, both inside and outside the classroom. Here, we explore some suggestions of where and how AI technology may be used throughout the education system.

We have established 19 areas of the education system where we envision the use of AI and for each of these areas we have described potential appliations. By outlining these applications we hope to frame dialogue within the community and to establish priorities for investment and development.

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